Election results in Kerala

Today the Kerala election results came out. The whole state is stunned at the 'photo finish' result, with the latest update being a 72-68 split of the 140-member state legislative assembly. The other three states have given solid mandates to the winners but Kerala seems to be in two minds.

The thing is, the Left rule was not as bad as the UDF made it out to be. The past rule was an out-and-out welfare regime, bordering on Fabian socialism. In a society as unequal as Kerala(I know this is a surprising fact, but our Gini index is among the highest in India.), only a welfare state can help people belonging to the lower sections in meeting their expenses on basic needs like food, education and healthcare. The Left has had this solid base which has stood with it for the past many decaded even as a good number of its members moved on to join the upper sections of the society. The loyalty to the Left front ensures it of a certain number of votes come what may.

Similarly, the UDF has a good following among the so-called general category sections - Nairs, Christians and thanks to the IUML, among Muslims too. Though the Kunjalikkutty issue that rose to prominence in the month just before the elction alienated many of the pro-UDF voters from it, the whole manner in which the media portrayed it consolidated the Muslim vote in north Kerala. This 'sympathy vote' led to a marked but expected improvement in the performance of IUML though the remaining allies in the UDF had to pay the price for what a good number of voters believed to be a case of 'protecting the powerful wrongdoer'. So the anti-incumbency factor did not work much in favour of the UDF. The very thought of having a person facing such serious allegations as a minister may have repelled a good number of voters who might have voted against the Left.

The manner in which the leadership of the UDF handled the two rupee per kilogram of rice scheme left much to be desired. The petty squabbles among the allies for seats, the corruption scandals at the Centre and the excessive attention bestowed on religious and communal leadership by the UDF leave much to be desired. It ought to revamp its PR machinery and understand that Kerala is in the process of moving on from the trend of voting on caste/communal lines to a more individualistic and instrumentalist voting pattern.

The LDF could have easily won this election if it had borne a semblance to a coherent government. It seemed in quite a number of instances that he left hand did not know what the right hand was doing. It was like a performance of Kathakali with a background of hiphop Bollywood music - a reign marred by easily avoidable confusion. Its welfare schemes were good and helped people survive in spite of the soaring levels of inflation but it would have been better if it had done a bit for the most populous and the most powerful class of Kerala - the middle class. A bit of support for setting up of new private industries in the state and at least a show of willingness to start the SmartCity project would have stood it in good stead. Alas, that was not to be.

BJP again failed to open its account in Kerala. This failure was very predictable too. Thanks to the riots in Gujrat and in Orissa, it is going to be very difficult for the BJP to get the minority vote - which accounts for 43 per cent of the total population of the state. Add the ballpark figure of the minimum 30 percent staunch Left supporters. So, about three-fourths of the population automatically exclude the party when it comes to the elections. And in a state where elections are traditionally neck-and-neck races, the party has virtually no chance of winning an election. Add factionalism and ego clashes to that and you will find that the lotus may never bloom in Kerala.

The society in Kerala is divided on caste, class and party lines, sometimes overlapping, sometimes conflicting. This is reflected in the elections too. The role played by factors like political polarisation, group loyalties and media activism make Kerala elections both predictably unpredictable and unpredictably predictable. That is the essence of politics in Kerala.