Osama's Death and Indian Silence

A significant majority of the people all around the world rejoiced as the U.S. SEALs killed Osama at his secret residence in Abbottabad in Pakistan. Indians were especially relieved as the episode led to a confirmation of the Indian stand that Pakistan can never be a trusted ally in the 'war against terror' as elements in the Pakistani security establishment continue to support terror groups of varied shades in order to further their interests in Afghanistan and Kashmir.

Their continued support of the Haqqani group in Afghanistan and LeT and other related groups in Pakistan defies the Bushian logic of 'You're with us or you're with them'. The fact is, the identification of these terror groups with Islam and the overwhelming spread of anti-U.S. and anti-India sentiments in Pakistan makes it difficult for any government to do anything against the terrorists even if its leaders genuinely want to do something. Given the close ties between the defence forces and the terror groups which were formed, nurtured and strengthened over the past decades, winning the war against terror in Pakistan seems impossible. That a good number of Pakistanis consider Osama to be a martyr and a that a majority felt sad about the killing came as no surprise to the people of India.

Still, Osama's death creates more threats to India. The increased incidence of terror attacks on Pakistani military installations show that the terror groups see the Pak defence forces as 'betrayers' who sold Osama to the U.S. in return for aid. The ease with which these terrorist groups entered and attacked these installations raises the question of the safety of the nuclear weapons in that country. In the current scenario, it is almost difficult to believe that Pakistan will be able to prevent the terrorists from gaining access to its nuclear arsenal if the latter make a determined attempt to do so.

The attacks also show that the grip of the ISI and Pak army on these terror groups is loosening. The pattern in which targets have been selcted and the manner in which the attacks have been carried out seem to proclaim a growing animosity towards the 'remote control owners' in the Pak defence forces. This is a dangerous trend as mad dogs on a leash are 'safer' than the ones which do not have a leash. Pak army used to control these groups to further their interests and nothing much else. Now that the control is almost gone, the future seems more terrifying than the past.

With the death of Osama and the seemingly unending attacks on the security apparatus, the rank and file of the army must be feeling heavily demoralised. The regard for the army in the country too might now be at an all-time-low. This might lead its leaders to opt for an easy way to boost morale - attack India. The subdued reactions of Indian leaders to the events in Pakistan are not due to lack of patriotism - they have been carefully worded so as not to push the Pak leadership over the brink. Pakistan does not have much to lose now - its economy is in tatters, the credibility of its defence forces is diminished and its claim to territorial sovereignity is nothing more than a joke now thanks to the publicity given to the drone attacks and the Swat valley incident. That a government would, even if temporarily, allow an extremist group with no credible popular mandate to govern its territory is frightening. It showed how weak the Pakistani government is. The time it took to finally decide to strike back makes us wonder how prepared Pakistan is to counter an extremist takeover of the entire country or even a strategic portion of it.

Now that Osama's death has prompted the terrorist groups in Pakistan to strike back against their masters, India needs to be more worried than ever. Grand statements against the official rulers of Pakistan, which our opposition parties demand, may satisfy the home audience. But the price we may have to pay for them makes it an easy decision to take.