The Coffee Club, China and India

The Coffee Club is a group of countries that aim to thwart the efforts of the G4 nations to get into the UNSC by expanding it. G4 are the four countries that have the maximum probability of making it to the UNSC - Brazil, Germany, India and Japan. The Coffee Club officially goes by the name 'Uniting for Consensus'. Its leading members obviously are Argentina, Mexico (both opposed to Brazil), Italy (against Germany), Pakistan (eminently guessable) and South Korea (against Japan). There are about 40 members in the Club that was formed in the 1990s.

The 2005 text of the proposal for Security Council reforms by the Coffee Club calls for retaining the five permanent members. Another 20 non-permanent members would be elected for two years - six from Africa, five from Asia, four from Latin America and the Caribbean, three from Western and two from Eastern Europe. As you can see, that was no reform at all. The Coffee Club is a grouping India will have to take into its calculations while trying for a permanent seat.

China is another prominent headache. It is the sole permanent member of the UNSC that is not supportive of India's candidature. Though the last statement from Beijing hinted at a change in China's position, we cannot trust it until it openly proclaims its stand. China may not support India because firstly, it doesn't think India is worthy of a seat at the high table and secondly, the support will be seen in Pakistan as nothing short of betrayal.

That means that even if India gets Obama's support, U.S. does not have to worry about India's candidature for a long time. So we will continue to provide soft loans to Africa, lobby for the support of virtually-unheard-of-nations for at least one more decade and try for better relations with the land of ping-pong diplomacy (which is an impossible task). From the experience of other countries, it is obvious that a country can have good relations with China only if it no poses no threat whatsoever to China in any sphere which it cares about AND China needs it for some reason. Though China needs India for both markets and some raw materials, India is a rival to China in many spheres. That is going to make life difficult for a good number of Indian diplomats.

In short, achieving that permanent seat needs people of exceptional ability and intelligence in the External Affairs Ministry.